With the Assembly elections due in five states early next year, a projection by ABP-CVoter shows that the road towards victory for the BJP and its allies is going to be a difficult one.
Although the survey shows that the BJP will return in Uttar Pradesh, it is not happening without the party losing over 100 seats it won in the last state elections. In Punjab, BJP and allies (BJP+) is expected to win zero seats whereas both the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress (INC) are locked in a neck-and-neck fight, but without either hitting the majority mark.
The poll was conducted with a sample size of 1,07,193 people across 690 seats with a margin of error of +/- 3% to +/- 5%.
The C-Voter results for Uttar Pradesh indicate that the BJP and its allies will manage to retain its place in the state, despite losing about 108 of its seats. The BJP+ is projected to win around 217 seats, Samajwadi Party 156 seats, BSP 18 seats and Congress 8.
BJP+ is also projected to garner around 40.7 per cent of votes, SP+ 31.1 per cent, BSP 15.1 per cent, and INC 8.9 per cent. The projected range of seats for BJP+ is 213-221 and for SP+ 152-160.
The fight, thus, is clearly between the BJP and SP as the difference has come down to just around 60 seats.
In Punjab, it’s a neck and neck fight between the AAP and Congress as individual wins remain uncertain, the CVoter projection showed. The BJP, however, is projected to win zero seats in the state. Congress is expected to accrue 46 seats, SAD 20, and AAP 51.
INC is projected to garner 34.9 per cent votes, SAD 20.6 per cent, AAP 36.5 per cent, and BJP 2.2 per cent. The projected range of seats for INC is 42-50 and for AAP 47-53.
The CVoter results for Uttarakhand indicate that BJP might just about win, with the Congress coming close but falling short of the majority mark.
BJP is projected to accrue 38 seats, INC 32, and AAP and others 0. The BJP is also projected to garner 41.4 per cent votes, INC 36.3 per cent, and AAP 11.8 per cent.
The coastal state is set to go the BJP’s way, according to the CVoter results. They are expected to accrue 21 seats — the halfway number — AAP 5 and the Congress 4. BJP is also projected to garner 35.7 per cent votes, AAP 23.6 per cent, and INC 18.6 per cent.
The Congress had won 17 seats in 2017 Assembly polls in Goa.
In Manipur, the BJP is eyeing a satisfactory win. According to the survey, the BJP is likely to win 25-29 seats, the Congress 20-24, Naga People’s Front (NPF) 4-8, and others 3-7 in the 60-member Assembly.
In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to get 38.7 per cent votes, while the Congress is expected to garner 33.1 per cent.